Saturday, 1 October 2016

Weekly Outlook of Nifty for 03rd to 07th October

Wishing everyone a Happy Navratri .

NIFTY

This week Nifty spot went down 276 points over last weeks close and finally ended the week with a loss of 220 points compared to last weekly closing . 


Last week we had mentioned that Nifty Spot needs to break and sustain above 8896 to confirm uptrend and Nifty spot needs to break and sustain below 8768 to confirm downtrend for the week. Nifty made a high of 8809.55 and a low of 8555.20 for the week.

This week  Nifty triggered our short trade and achieved all targets giving us around 230 points from the short trade . Had mentioned in the weekly post 3 weeks ago that '8900 is our trend continuation level' and we saw Nifty close below 8900 indicating weakness in the current uptrend and it can make us go back to test the breakout levels of 8735 if global markets also turn weak' and also that 'We also have a support now at 8673 below 8735 and only on a consecutive closing below 8673 we can expect a test of 8520 - 8515 levels incase of a deeper correction' and we saw Nifty finally this week make a low at 8555.20 and manage to close above 8600 spot levels for the week . Nifty traded between 8690 - 8810 till thursday which was also the expiry day for september series in F&O segment and then finally broke below our September month trend reversal level of 8673 on the news of the surgical strike by the Indian Army . Market was moving in a indecisive direction after making a high of 8968 at the start of the month and this correction was due to come after the rally witnessed . Once Nifty sustained below our trend reversal level of 8673 , incase of a deeper correction we were expecting a test of 8552 - 8522 levels on breaking below 8637 - 8602 levels as mentioned in the previous daily posts last week and so far Nifty has managed to take support just above it. Incase of a break of 8522 Nifty has a small support near 8480 - 8464 levels .  


For the month of October we can expect uprend in Nifty spot on a consecutive close above 8755 and downtrend continuation would be on a consecutive close below 8467


In the coming week Nifty spot needs to break and sustain above 8681 to confirm uptrend and then one can expect a move till 8755 initially and breaking and sustaining above 8773 will give further confirmation for the next move which can take us up till 8906. Similarly Nifty spot needs to break and sustain below 8542 to confirm downtrend and then one can expect a move till 8467 initially and breaking and sustaining below 8449 will give further confirmation for the next move which can take us down till 8317 . This is the expiry week too for September series in the F&O segment and we can expect some swings .


Nifty Spot Levels for the week are

Long above 8654 , Tgt  8681 - 8702 - 8724

IF Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain above 8755 then ,

long again for 8773 - 8836 - 8906

Short below 8568 , Tgt 8542 - 8520 - 8499

IF Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain below 8467 then, 

short again for 8449 - 8386 - 8317


P.S. Always wait for the yellow highlighted levels to be crossed after taking a long/short position for confirmation of the trade . Once the highlighted levels are crossed and the next target is achieved move your Stoploss to the highlighted levels .

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Disclaimer : These are my personal views and one should do their own research before entering any trades based on them  . The use of the blog is agreement that the blog is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute advice in any form in the furtherance of any trade or trading decisions.