Saturday, 23 July 2016

Weekly Spot Outlook of Nifty & Bank Nifty for 25th to 29th July

NIFTY

This week Nifty spot went up 46 points and went down 65 points from last weeks close and finally ended the week with a loss of 0.20 points compared to last weekly closing which is a very flat close as you can get .

Last week we had mentioned that Nifty Spot needs to break and sustain above 8395 to confirm uptrend and Nifty spot needs to break and sustain below 8488 to confirm downtrend. Nifty made a high of 8587.10 and a low of 8476.70 for the week

This week  Nifty triggered our short trade and the low it made was just 11 points below our confirmation level of 8488 which it did not sustain and immediately bounced back . We were expecting Nifty to test 8630 levels if it managed to close above 8556 - 8575 spot levels and unable to do so we were expecting to see a correction till 8400 levels before moving up again. This week we have seen good consolidation taking place . Nifty has been unable to break above its monthly high of 8595 inspite of coming close to it on a couple of occasions this week and one should watch breaking and sustaining above it for signs of further upmove . We are now near a strong resistance level of 8629 - 8660 as per our monthly levels too and one should watch out for a consecutive close above 8675 level to hold longs once we test our these levels. We are entering into the expiry week too and we can expect good volatility after the narrow range and flat close last week.  

For this month we are long till Nifty spot closes / sustains above 8454 . Now for further upmove we need to break and sustain above 8595 and then we may see a move till 8630 - 8660 . Those holding longs should do so with a trailing cbsl of 8488 as per spot. 

In the coming week Nifty spot needs to break and sustain above 8578 to confirm uptrend and then one can expect a move till 8617 initially and breaking and sustaining above 8626 will give further confirmation for the next move which can take us up till 8696. Similarly Nifty spot needs to break and sustain below 8505 to confirm downtrend and then one can expect a move till 8466 initially and breaking and sustaining below 8456 will give further confirmation for the next move which can take us down till 8386.


Nifty Spot Levels for the week are

Long above 8564 , Tgt  8578 - 8589 - 8601

IF Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain above 8617 then ,

long again for 8626 - 8660 - 8696

Short below 8519 , Tgt 8505 - 8493 - 8482

IF Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain below 8466 then, 

short again for 8456 - 8423 - 8386



BANK NIFTY

This week Bank Nifty spot went up 200 points  and went down 400 points over last weeks close and finally ended the week with a loss of 260 points compared to last weekly closing  

Last week we had mentioned that Bank Nifty Spot needs to break and sustain above 19115 to confirm uptrend and Bank Nifty spot needs to break and sustain below 18792 to confirm downtrend. Bank Nifty made a high of 19158 and a low of 18551.30 .

This week Bank Nifty triggered our long trade and completed nearly 2 targets giving 70 points before taking our TSL and then fell to trigger our short trade and completed 4 targets on the short trade giving us around 300 points from it . Had mentioned last week that 'Bank Nifty has just closed above 18946 which is our monthly confirmation level for further upmove . A consecutive close above this on Monday should be watched for next direction'. On Monday inspite of a firm opening we failed to get a consecutive close above 18946. Had also mentioned in the previous weekly outlook that 'We are now near a strong resistance level of 19155 as per our levels and one should watch out for a consecutive close above this level for more immediate upside as we may see a small correction atleast till near 18600 - 18400 levels before moving up further' . We saw a high of 19158 this week from where we corrected till 18551. So we saw the market give good moves as per our levels . 

For this month we are long till Bank Nifty closes / sustains above 18371 . Now for further upmove we need to break and  sustain above 19158 and then we may see a move till 19242 - 19345 . Those holding longs should do so with a trailing cbsl of 18430 as per spot  .

In the coming week Bank Nifty spot needs to break and sustain above 18851 to confirm uptrend and then one can expect a move till 19022 initially and breaking and sustaining above 19065 will give further confirmation of the next move which can take us till 19372 . Similarly Bank Nity spot needs to break and sustain below 18529 to confirm downtrend and then one can expect a move till 18359 initially and breaking and sustaining below 18316 will give further confirmation of the next move which can take us down till 18009.

Bank Nifty Spot Levels for the week are

Long above 18790 , Tgt 18851 - 18901 - 18951

IF Bank Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain above 19022 then 

long again for 19065 - 19211 - 19372

Short below 18591 , Tgt 18529 - 18480 - 18430

IF Bank Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain below 18359 then 

short again for 18316 - 18170 - 18009


P.S. Always wait for the yellow highlighted levels to be crossed after taking a long/short position for confirmation of the trade . Once the highlighted levels are crossed and the next target is achieved move your Stoploss to the highlighted levels .

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Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict trailing stop loss