Tuesday, 19 July 2016

Nifty & Bank Nifty Spot Outlook for 20th July

NIFTY


Nifty spot opened  at 8514.30,  made a low of 8476.70 , went up till 8540.05 before closing at 8528.55 . We had mentioned that long positions can be taken above 8530 and short positions can be taken below 8488 for the day . Nifty triggered our long trade twice in the day & short trade one but could not achieve even a single target on either side and took our SL . Not being able to complete a single target reflects the indecisiveness in trade direction. Nifty broke below 8488 where our weekly shorts get confirmed but bounced back towards to end to close even above our short trigger level. After seeing the pullback towards the end of session we now need to see if we can break our resistance zone of 8556 - 8575 for this month where we have been seeing profit booking so far and also if Nifty can trigger our weekly long level of 8595 on closing basis . Had mentioned in the previous post ' Those who are holding positional longs on closing above 8454 spot , should now be cautious if resistances are not broken and if still holding should do so with TSL at 8488 closing basis '  , so longs are still good as we have closed well above 8488 today . As mentioned previously fresh longs should be entered only on consecutive close above 8575 or near 8400 with 8390 as cbsl . One can expect a test of 8630 - 8651 once we break above the current resistance and those going short around 8650 should do so with a strict cbsl of 8673 spot . As of now Nifty has some support near 8415 levels and one should watch the price action once we reach it to determine the next move.

Trend reversal in Nifty for this series would be consecutive closing below 8122 and trend continuation would be on consecutive close above 8454 spot . 

For today if Nifty spot sustains above 8549 we can see a initial move upto  8570 & on sustaining above 8575 we may see further upmove till 8613. Similarly if Nifty spot sustains below 8509 we may see a initial move on the downside upto 8488 & on sustaining below 8482 we may see a further downmove till 8444


Nifty Spot Levels for the day are

Long above 8549 for 8561 - 8575 - 8613 , SL 8522

Short below 8509 for 8496 - 8482 - 8444 , SL 8535


BANK NIFTY


Bank Nifty spot opened at 18970.15, made a high of 19030.05 , then went down till 18833.60 , before closing at 18905.15 . We had mentioned long positions can be taken above 18987 and short positions can be taken below 18860 for the day.  Bank Nifty initally triggered our long trade and completed just 1 target and hit our TSL . Bank Nifty then went to trigger our short trade but could not complete even 1 target . Towards the end of session we saw Nifty retest the days high but Bank Nifty did not do the same even after the news of PSU bank re capitalization .  Had mentioned in the previous post that since we broke above our resistance zone of 18735 - 18831 'Now we are headed to the next resistance levels of 18947 - 19155 where it may face the next resistance'. We can expect further upmove if Bank Nifty breaks and sustains above these levels .  Those who are holding positional longs on closing above 18371 spot , should now be cautious if resistances are not broken and should move their TSL to 18790 closing basis . Had mentioned in the last post that 'Bank Nifty has outperformed for the last few days and we may see a small correction come if we do not get a consecutive close above 19155' . As of now Bank Nifty has some support near 18620 -18520 below 18790 spot .

Trend reversal in Bank Nifty for this series would be consecutive closing below 17500 and trend continuation would be on consecutive close above 18371 spot . 

For today if Bank Nifty spot sustains above 18965 we can see a initial move upto 19028 & on sustaining above 19045 we may see further upmove  till 19159. Similarly if Bank Nifty spot sustains below 18845 we may see a initial move on the downside upto 18782 &  on sustaining below 18766  we may see further downmove till 18651.

Bank Nifty Spot Levels for the day are

Long above 18965 for 19002 – 19045 – 19159 , SL 18887

Short below 18845 for 18808 – 18766 – 18651 , SL 18924

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Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict trailing stop loss